Carat forecasts continued positive momentum in global advertising spend, with 4.4% growth in 2016
-Digital Spend to Dominate Growth in 2017 & Hit US$168.2 Billion -
Carat, the leading global media network, today publishes its updated forecasts for worldwide advertising expenditure, showing a positive outlook for the global advertising market in 2016, set to continue in 2017 powered by the ongoing growth of Digital*.
Based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat’s latest global forecasts show that advertising spend will reach US$548.2 billion in 2016, accounting for a +4.4% year-on-year growth. The healthy outlook is fuelled by a buoyant 2016, marked by high-interest media events including the UEFA EURO championship, the Rio 2016 Olympics and Paralympics, as well as the upcoming US presidential elections.
In 2016, Carat reports a positive outlook for most regions with particularly robust growth in North America (+5.0%) and strong recovery in Russia (+6.2%), countering lower expectations in some markets. The US continues to show positive market confidence with forecasts revised up to +5.0% as the US presidential elections alone are expected to generate US$7.5 billion of incremental spend. Despite a slight moderation following the EU referendum, the UK continues to be the largest advertising market in Western Europe, with positive growth of +5.4% expected in 2016, exceeding the average rate of +2.9% in the region. Advertising forecasts are also set to remain strong in Latin America and Asia Pacific, with +10% and +3.9% growth respectively in 2016, in spite of Brazil’s lower expectations and China’s adjustments to its ‘new normal’ economic landscape.
Despite a slight decline due to volatility in some markets, the positive momentum of the global advertising spend is expected to continue into 2017 reaching US$570.4 billion, a +4.0% year-on-year growth, led by the ongoing upsurge of Digital media. As the leading media type in 13 of the markets analysed, Digital continues to grow at double-digit prediction levels of +15.6% in 2016, accelerating further at +13.6% in 2017. Driven by the high demand of Mobile, Online Video and Social Media, Digital media spend is expected to reach 27.7% share of total global media spend in 2016, increasing to a predicted 30.2% in 2017.
Whilst TV* continues to hold the highest share of total media spend of 41.1% in 2016 - boosted by high-interest media events - it is expected to grow at a more moderate rate of +2.3% in 2017 with a lower predicted share of spend at 40.3%.
Commenting on the Carat advertising expenditure forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, said:
“Carat’s latest forecasts show continued confidence and positive momentum for global advertising spending. Expanding over three times faster than the global rate, Digital reaffirms itself as the unrivalled driver of growth. As the digital economy brings complexity, speed of change and disruption, it is only through Digital that brands can build engagement and remain relevant to their audiences on a fully addressable and real-time basis.”
“In a world where connectivity and convergence are now the norm, Mobile, Social and Online Video lead the rapid growth of Digital investments. With more flexible, targeted and data-led media solutions, Mobile, Social and Video are driving the demand for richer and more powerful consumer engagements, in the right place, at the right time.”
Silvia de Candia Global Communications Manager, Dentsu Aegis Network +44 (0) 7774 191 474
Melissa Mason Global Marketing Manager, Carat +44 (0) 20 3640 5399
Notes to Editors
*Digital: 'Digital Advertising' or 'Digital Media' or 'Digital' includes advertising spend from Search, Display, Online Video, Social Media and Mobile.
*TV: ‘TV’ or ‘Television’ includes advertising spend from local and national linear Television.
*Print: ‘Print’ is defined as the combined advertising spend of Magazines and Newspapers.
Methodology: Carat's advertising expenditure forecasts are compiled from data which is collated from around the Carat network and based on Carat's local market expertise. We use a bottom-up approach, with forecasts provided for 59 markets covering the Americas, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Rest of World by medium - Television, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, Cinema, Out-of-Home and Digital Media. The advertising spend figures are provided net of negotiated discounts and with agency commission deducted, in current prices and in local currency. For global and regional figures we convert the figures centrally into USD with the average exchange rate. The forecasts are produced bi-annually with actual figures for the previous year and latest forecasts for the current and following year.